Thursday, 9 October 2014

Gary Tanashian: US Dollar is Extreme - Commercials Betting on Big Dollar Downturn.




  Gary Tanashian provides very interesting charts to put the recent rise of US Dollar into perspective.



UBS: If The Referendum Passes Swiss Bank Would Have To Buy About 1,500 t of Gold over 3 years.


"It is the very good speech, but the most significant here is the place where it is happening: Swiss Parliament. It could be very much the beginning of the global reset. Read more."



Kitco:


US Dollar is Extreme


"Using Tom McCellan’s article discussing a “blow off” move in the US dollar and its very bearish net short position by commercial traders as a starting point, I would like to talk about the USD and gold and how they each fit in to the global macro backdrop.  We could add silver into the mix as well because its failure in relation to gold (ref. the gold-silver ratio’s breakout last week) is the other horseman (joining Uncle Buck) that would indicate a changing macro.  Here’s the McClellan piece:
First I would question the term “blow off” when talking about the USD.  Markets that have come off of long term basing patterns and broken above resistance with plenty of overhead resistance still to come have not blown off.  A blow off is Nasdaq 2000, Uranium 2007, Crude Oil 2008, Silver 2011, etc.
Reviewing the monthly chart below, we see nothing of the sort currently when considering a “blow off” move in USD.  What we see is a currency that made its real blow off move in 1985 to climax the Volcker interest rate hiking regime.
There is no blow off in USD.  What there is is a savage upward move that we charted all along from its birth to its now mature and hysterical potential pivot point.
usd.monthly
USD appears to be rising in response to a narrative taking shape about Fed Funds rate hikes by mid-2015.  This is brought about by the strong economic performance that has taken place since we clearly anticipated it in early 2013.  Let’s not over complicate this.  The currency’s strength and associated rate hike talk are in play because of economic performance, which has been good in key areas like relatively high-paying manufacturing and generally with the improved employment (and unemployment) data. Read more on Kitco."