Friday, 16 October 2015

Just A Reminder For Toyota: Germany Has Already Wasted Billions On Hydrogen Before "Clean Diesel."


  The story with Hydrogen is the never ending one. And it is the same old buddies from the Big Oil who is pushing it. They have found another needle to put you on after Oil. Just check who will be producing Hydrogen. All the same - centralised control. Infrastructure for the hydrogen filling stations will require trillions in investments and we have electric sockets everywhere. EVs are giving us the real choice for the distributed Energy Systems. You are finally moving from 3 central TV stations to the Internet in Energy. In 2014 in the whole U.S. there were … 14 stations. Paid by the same Big Oil journalists are still mourning how expensive is Tesla, just wait for the fuel cells cars, but you can wait very long for the real commercial production.
  Apparently Toyota has thrown a big hydrogen party in Europe "amid Volkswagen crisis". As much as I would loved to see Hydrogen to succeed - as these cars are using lithium batteries as well for he boost of specific power and regenerative breaking, fuel cell is basically the range extender - it maybe will never happen. Hydrogen is the future and will always be - this is a very well known joke among the insiders. I just would like to remind that German automakers have already wasted billions of dollars chasing the Hydrogen dream with high-fliers in early 2000s such as Fuel Cell, Ballard Power and Plug Power. After that they all moved to promote "Clean Diesel", which cancer hazard fumes we all are breathing today. I can understand Toyota: if they admit that they have wasted billions on Hydrogen now the plain sorry will not pan out - it will require harakiri for the good part of the management team, but is Germany ready for another embarrassment? Than again I can be wrong, but I am in a good company.

Tony Seba: Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles or Electric Vehicles?

Now you can follow in more depth Elon Musk statement about the Hydrogen and Fuel Cells.

Elon Musk On Why "Hydrogen Fuel Cell Is Dumb."

  This is one more great opportunity to listen to Elon Musk. He is covering Tesla Patents, Competition, GM Bolt, Gigafactory and batteries, Tesla Model III and X, Superchargers and sales in China. Please listen to his thoughts on the touchy subject of Hydrogen fuel cells. "We do not have even to discuss it. Hydrogen Fuel Cells are extremely silly and it will become obvious in a few years time". "Electric cars are very efficient and much cheaper even with Oil price at 50 dollars." Other companies are taking his vision into account already.

Electric Cars Vs Hydrogen: There Are Just 12 Public Hydrogen Stations in the United States.


  I continue my research into Hydrogen and Electric Cars. Technically Hydrogen cars are electric as well, instead of only storing energy in the lithium battery you have the small energy producing plan on board called Hydrogen fuel cell. You can sense the trouble already - the full energy cycle has a very low efficiency as the chat above shows. After further research you will realise that Hydrogen cars are the same EVs with the fuel cell range extender, Lithium battery is still needed for the specific power compensation and regenerative breaking.
  Hydrogen is the future ... and will always be. Electric cars are already here and pouring onto our streets in numbers now, Hydrogen based are still just a few prototypes with total lack of infrastructure. Tesla Superchargers will allow 98% of US population to cross the country from coast to coast by 2015. We have sun and wind with other alternative energy to power all our electric cars theoretically, where the Hydrogen will come from? The reports show that the cheap natural gas is the only answer here and it means Fracking in US and UK - so much for the green part of this dream and its sustainability. Apart from huge lost of energy in the full cycle, we will stay with the same old boys from the big oil who is behind this push. No energy security, no distributed energy generation, just the same old needle provided by the same people.
  Hydrogen will be viable as the additional source of energy once its economics improves, but why distract the attention now instead of focusing on electric cars available lithium technology? This is what Elon Musk at Tesla and China are doing now. Tesla Gigafactory will bring even more reliable, cheaper lithium batteries to power EVs with Tesla Model S and X reaching 400 miles range. It will allow to build Tesla Model III - 35k electric car with 200 miles range to ignite the mass market.

Lithium Catalyst: Hydrogen Dreams And Write-down Of Two-thirds Of US Shale Oil Explodes Fracking Myth.


  If you have noticed, last few weeks Hydrogen powered cars were seriously pumped by some media outlets and auto-makers. Elon Musk was stealing media attention by making the headlines with his Tesla Motors Gigafactory and UK "occupation" by Tesla Model S, but now we have another very important reason for Hydrogen story revival.

"We have discussed with you my personal vision of the Market for Electric Cars and Lithium Industry developments yesterday. I might be very "responsibly conservative" for the prospects of our Lithium Battery Industry after all!  Today you get the bold vision from our Electric rEvolution leader-in-chief Elon Musk. AutoBlogGreen reports: "Tesla CEO Elon Musk Expects "Hundreds" Of Battery Gigafactories. Read more.
  I am sceptical about Hydrogen and picture below shows the Hydrogen economics - Battery Electric Cars are much more efficient. Add here the billions of dollars needed to be invested for the infrastructure to be in place and you will get the picture who is sponsoring the effort.

  You just need to check who is behind Hydrogen infrastructure: it is the same faces - Big Oil. Who else will be able to create the necessary Hydrogen production, storage and distribution? Idea is to change one Needle with Oil to another Addiction. 

  I personally have nothing against Hydrogen, when economics will be right. For those who are afraid of the Lithium Battery fires I can only say that driving highly pressurised Hydrogen in the tank will be quite another experience. 
  Actually, in my discussions with Mercedes who is moving forward E-Cell concepts they have explained to me that their Hydrogen powered cars will have Lithium Battery on-board. Hydrogen Cell only produces Energy, it cannot store it and Regenerative Breaking is the very important source of Energy which could be only stored in the battery on-board. Another very important consideration is the so called specific power: the ability of Lithium Battery to provide very high rate of discharge which allows famous Electric Car instant torque. Hydrogen Fuel Cells are lacking such important energy dynamics. Hydrogen Fuel Cells basically will provide the Range Extension to the Battery Powered Cars.

"Mercedes-Benz reports on 3.3 M km of B-Class Fuel cell testing, looks ahead to next generation.
  Based on an optimized, more compact fuel cell system presented by Mercedes-Benz in its F 600 HYGENIUS research vehicle in 2005, the 80 kW stack module in the B-Class F-CELL is around 40% smaller, but develops 30% more power output and cuts fuel consumption by 16% compared to the A-Class stack. Stack lifetime has increased to more than 2,000 hours.  The electric motor has a continuous / peak performance of 70 kW / 100 kW (94 hp / 136 hp) and a maximum torque of 290 Nm (214 lb-ft). Range (NEDC) is 385 km (239 miles) and refueling time is about three minutes. The fuel-cell car uses a lithium-ion battery pack with an output of 35 kW and a capacity of 1.4 kWh to boost power and recover braking energy. Green Car Congress".
  Now we can look at all these events in another light. Dr Nafeez Ahmed reports in The Guardian: "Write-down of two-thirds of US shale oil explodes fracking myth":

"Industry's over-inflated reserve estimates are unravelling, and with it the 'American dream' of oil independence
Next month, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will publish a new estimate of US shale deposits set to deal a death-blow to industry hype about a new golden era of US energy independence by fracking unconventional oil and gas.
EIA officials told the Los Angeles Times that previous estimates of recoverable oil in the Monterey shale reserves in California of about 15.4 billion barrels were vastly overstated. The revised estimate, they said, will slash this amount by 96% to a puny 600 million barrels of oil. The Guardian."

  I think that we all can appreciate much better the report by David Hughes at Post Carbon Institute "Drill, Baby, Drill" Can we talk now that fracking potentially has just only postponed The Peak Oil? Chris Nelder gave a very good interview on this subject in depth last year: "Peak Oil Isn't Dead".
     Have you checked you fuel Gas or Petrol receipts lately? If we have so much Oil from fracking why the prices are still so high? Even with the Global Economy still recovering at very tepid pace? What will happen when FED's QE will produce its miracle - "The Solid Growth"?

 "I find it particularly encouraging that this year all major automakershave announced J/V plans to produce Electric Cars in China. Chinese government has declared war on pollution and we are proud to be part of such a noble case: to keep the air clean to breath, but allow personal mobility in most densely populated urban centres in the world. We are talking here about mass market for Electric Cars. Now we have the Lithium battery technology to make it happen. International Lithium works on the security of Lithium supply for this Electric Revolution.
  Talking about Lithium demand, I have to mention the rapid growth in Alternative Energy. Solar and Wind Power will provide further increase in demand for the Secondary Storage, Lithium Battery technology advancing in this field very fast these days. Autonomous Robotics systems will be another very important customer in the future for the Lithium Industry. Read more."

 Now, maybe, we can have the better understanding why Elon Musk is so confident in his plans for Electric Cars and at International Lithium we are doing our part to change the world into a better placewhere the exhaust pipe could be found only on the old pictures one day.