Wednesday, 1 March 2017

Energy rEVolution: Who Will Be Left Holding The Bag? Oil And Gas Companies Are Facing Major Technological Disruption.




You can spin a lot of things around in this day and age, you can even try to "Make Coal Clean Again". But once a technology is developed to address the particular problem, the magic of mass production is taking place and costs are going down fast in accordance with Moore's law for chips and "The Learning Curve" laws for the other industries.  





We are at the major bifurcation point for our civilization, Energy rEVolution is unstoppable now. We can produce Renewable Energy cheaper than any other fossil alternatives. And now we can store it and use when we want it with Lithium Energy Storage Technology. You can build some walls to protect some fossils in business, but when Reds are going Green this process is making a truly tectonic geopolitical shift





When China is going full ahead building the new Manufacturing Base of the 4th Industrial rEVolution with its New Energy Plan, the West is better to take notice. We are not just talking here about the largest in the world Solar and Wind generation capacity in China or its largest market for Electric Cars in the world. 






We are talking about Oil becoming less and less important in terms of being like Blood for The Economy when everything just stops without it being pumped through The Economic and Financial System every single day. Suddenly, one society can live without burning it every day just to get around the block. It will have its place in the military, air transportation and chemical industries, but it is not as precious as Blood anymore. 





Now, let's think about the most important subject here. What will happen to all other societies? To those ones which are built all around Oil? When their military power suddenly becomes irrelevant. When they are left with Trillions of dollars in stranded assets glued to Oil. This is the real disruption and asymmetric warfare. Who needs war when you are building Steam Engines just to "Make America Great Again"?





The last insult will come when the best brilliant scientific minds will start following the best technology in the Transfer of The History to China as well. We still have some time to make The Switch, but this time is running out very fast. Who will be left holding the bag with Trillions of dollars worthless stranded assets after this energy rEVolution will claim its victims?






Back Into The Future: Lithium Will Power Us For The Next 50 Years And Then Robots.






Lithium Race And The New Energy Plan: China Will Plow $361 Billion Into Renewable Power Generation By 2020.





"We have very serious money coming very fast into renewable energy space all over the world now. Bill Gates is making a Billion dollar fund to invest in the clean energy and China cannot really hide anymore its very ambitious quest for the world domination ... in all things Green first. And Green is the color of money this time. And I actually think that these are very positive developments: hopefully, President Trump will not help just China to become Great again and America will get its fair share of common sense. 

Let's all better compete in the Clean Energy Race than Arms Race. Asymmetric Warfare will be the name of the game now.  Solar and Electric Cars mean business these days. Whoever will succeed to bring them all up to the state level scale will enjoy the benefits of virtually free energy after the CAPEX is invested, while the other side will be sitting on Trillions of dollars in stranded assets. 

Trade War - anybody? It has never stopped really and is taking its way now with the tide of disrupting technologies from the labs with literally millions of the best-trained engineering minds and into the markets taking them by storm. FED central planners can never really even imagine what the real central planning can do: China's New Energy Plan is in action now. So one would think: who should call whom now first: Elon Musk or Donal Trump? Read more."


Lithium Race Goes Exponential: More Electric Cars Are Sold In China Than In The Rest Of The World Combined.





"Reuters reports from the grounds of The Centre of The Lithium Universe. More electric cars are sold in China than in the rest of the world combined! I will not open the very big secret telling you that these cars are not the best in the world yet and sales are driven by the government subsidies, but just imagine what will happen when really best electric cars will be sold at the prices below $30k ... then in a couple of years below $20k? A BMW 2-type car with much better performance, cheaper and with 10% of the running cost of ownership? Multiply it on the opportunity provided by the largest auto market in the world and state level fight for the survival gasping for the fresh air literally. Then just make a few calculations related to coming California Style ZEV mandates...  


We have the major catalyst in the making in China right now. The whole country is leapfrogging into the 21st century with The New Energy Plan. Implications will be very far reaching and Lithium Market is just one of the signs of things to come when bottlenecks in the supply chains are reflecting the returned appetite from the Dragon. This Lithium Race is going into the exponential part of the S-curve now. Read more."





Lithium Race: Which Will Be The First Country To Ban Fuel-Burning Cars: Norway, Netherlands, Germany, India or China?






  Dr. Joe Romm provides us with more information on the recent decision of German Bundesrat to ban fuel-burning cars. This tipping point for electric cars to become the fast growing mass market is the result of the technological advance called "The Learning Curve" when doubling of production brings on average 26% in cost reduction. It is true for the price of Solar PV, it is even faster for the chip makers and for Lithium Batteries Bloomberg reports about 14-19% cost reduction every year.
  Now we are in the fast lane approaching this transition with first electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 miles coming to the market: GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3. BMW i3 with the new larger battery, Renault Zoe with 400 km range and Nissan Leaf with upgraded battery are driving the sales in Europe and China stands on its own with 25 companies making 51 models of electric cars. 
  Lithium Technology is here and the best electric cars will become only cheaper and better. Bloomberg estimates 2022 - 2026 when EVs will reach parity with ICE on capital cost alone. I will translate: depending on the country from 2022 electric cars will become cheaper to buy than comparable ICE ones. They will provide much better performance, safety and fraction of running cost to operate. This progress is inevitable and Tesla shows what is coming with Tesla Model S outselling ALL luxury sedan brands in the U.S. and Western Europe by a very wide margin. In the Q3 of this year, Tesla Model S sales were almost double of Mercedes S-Class and more than double of BMW 7!  
  And, finally, as Dr. Joe Romm is pointing out that governments start to wake up to the horrible cancer hazard air pollution on our streets from fuel-burning cars and voices for the ban of such cars are louder and louder.  We can already add Netherlands to his list of countries and I have put China there as well. Masters of the asymmetric warfare Chinese will definitely capitalize on the advance they have managed to gain with their New Energy Plan at the right time. China has the largest EVs market in the world, Warren Buffett-backed BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric carsChinese companies are the largest lithium chemicals producers for the lithium batteries already. Lithium Megafactories are rising with billions of dollars in investments and they are buying the best lithium projects to secure supply of this critical metal.
  If and when China will ban fuel-burning cars remains the speculation at this moment, but it will change the geopolitical landscape overnight making many Trillions of dollars in assets in the West worthless and some major companies literally shrinking in size within a year or two. We will have more Chinese names at the top of the World's largest companies for sure and size of the Chinese economy will jump reflecting the new growth based on the manufacturing base of the 21st centuryThis Energy rEVolution will be very fast and brutal to those unprepared. It is time to check your portfolios in order not to get caught in "The Death Spiral" - like Fitch is predicting for the oil companies. And whoever would like to start new trade wars should be thinking twice and long term in advance, like China is doing building secure lithium supply to power new Energy Plan and Electric rEVolution. With the diminishing role of Oil as the only source of Energy, will our world be able to have a peaceful transition to the new order? I will leave these worries to our brave politicians, you should think about your investments and on which side of the history you would like to be to make the difference. You can find my chronicles of this Energy rEVolution on this blog and below are some links for your own research including the Dr. Joe Romm article. Read more."




The Switch.


"I will throw a few numbers just to give you a teaser here. The rest is on this blog for those who are ready to learn. The cost of Lithium in your iPhone is $1 dollar, in Tesla's Lithium battery cost of Lithium is 2-3% in the price of the finished product. We are in a generational shift 2 to 7,000: 2 is the number of the batteries in your father's remote control, more than 7,000 is the number of lithium batteries in Tesla Model S. It takes 63 kg of LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) to build Tesla Model S 70 kWh battery. Every 1% increase in sales of Electric Cars as part of total auto sales brings new demand for 70,000 t of LCE. Total production last year was 160,000 -180,000 t of LCE. During all our humankind history 1,000,000 EVs were sold before 2015. This year alone we can get 1,000,000 electric cars sold. Worldwide we are still close only to 1% of Electric cars in total auto sales. BYD - EV automaker from China where Warren Buffett is holding a 10% stake, will sell this year 100,000 EVs, it took GM 7 years to sell the same amount 100,000 of GM Volts. China is talking now about California style Zero Emissions Mandate: 8% of all news cars to be electric by 2018 and 12% by 2020. Let's digest it for a minute. With sales of EVs now only above 1% mark, we are talking about the factor of 8X in  ... two years time and 12X increase in the number of electric cars produced in China by 2020! Now Goldman Sachs numbers can be really conservative: they are talking about 3 times increase in Lithium Demand by 2025. I am talking about the total disruption of $12 Trillion industries: 4$ Trillion Transportation and $8 Trillion Energy and Utilities. I am talking about all cars being electric very soon. 

Now you will better appreciate the following fact that International Lithium Strategic Partner Ganfeng Lithium has more than doubled its total sales in 2015 in just 9 months of this year!  We are talking here about Energy rEVolution and Lithium is the magic metal at the very heart of it. Only a few experts, as usual, do really know what they are talking about. Joe Lowry, Chris Berry and Andrew Miller from Simon Moores' Benchmark are taking the floor below.







   And The Switch ... The Switch is the coming tide when literally millions of people will be switching very fast (as fast as all those millions of EVs can be made) to the electric cars. GM Bolt will give us the first taste of what is coming. The first two electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 Miles will change everything. Tesla Model 3 will start the real flood of affordable electric cars which are just better than anything else at the same price from the ICE age. Despite all headlines about Electric Cars on my blog, 99% of all new cars are still powered by the last century technology of controlled explosions and by burning oil in different compositions while killing us all and our planet at the same time. Do you remember the 90s - The World Before The WWW and Information Revolution? Now we have 21st Century and Energy Revolution: The World Just Before The INTERNET. Read more."