Wednesday, 24 May 2017

The Switch And Lithium Race: World Economic Forum - India Will Sell Only Electric Cars Within The Next 13 Years.




Now World Economic Forum is talking about India's plans to allow only electric cars to be sold by 2030! This message will make its way finally to the Bloomberg terminals and in the models of Lithium Supply and Demand. We will have the very important moment this summer with Tesla starting production of Model 3 and launch of 4 major Lithium Megafactories in China. These events and lithium price which is already pushing in Shanghai USD $20,000 per LCE T will bring lithium supply in the headlines of the mainstream media. 

It will be interesting to see when the UK will be able finally to break the spell of the Oil industry and DIEsel automakers and follow India. Meanwhile, Lithium Megafactories are rising all around the world and map below shows you the exponential growth of the New Energy rEvolution.







Lithium Race: India Unveils Ambitious Plan To Have Only Electric Cars By 2030.


It looks like we have a competition now among the countries which are trying to ban cancer hazard polluting ICE cars first! This a great sign of times and shows that The Switch is approaching very fast. Now we can throw all demand estimations for lithium out of the window. We are moving from the question of the price for lithium to the question who has lithium. Watch video.







International Lithium And Ganfeng Mariana Lithium JV Exploration Target And Indicated Resource Of 1.25 M T of LCE.





Exploration target at Mariana Lithium, Argentina. 
International Lithium NI 43-101 report.






Kirill Klip, Executive Chairman of ILC stated, "We are very pleased with the results of the maiden resource estimation at the Mariana lithium potash brine project, together with our strategic partner Ganfeng Lithium. This project is now moving from an early exploration stage to an advanced exploration stage where it will be more easily compared to other lithium brine projects in Argentina. We are looking forward to follow up with Ganfeng Lithium on the recommendations of this report in order to ensure the rapid advancement of the project towards the pilot stage and to conduct further feasibility studies that will investigate the economic viability of the Mariana project."



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Lithium Race: Which Will Be The First Country To Ban Fuel-Burning Cars: Norway, Netherlands, Germany, India or China?






  Dr. Joe Romm provides us with more information on the recent decision of German Bundesrat to ban fuel-burning cars. This tipping point for electric cars to become the fast growing mass market is the result of the technological advance called "The Learning Curve" when doubling of production brings on average 26% in cost reduction. It is true for the price of Solar PV, it is even faster for the chip makers and for Lithium Batteries Bloomberg reports about 14-19% cost reduction every year.
  Now we are in the fast lane approaching this transition with first electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 miles coming to the market: GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3. BMW i3 with the new larger battery, Renault Zoe with 400 km range and Nissan Leaf with upgraded battery are driving the sales in Europe and China stands on its own with 25 companies making 51 models of electric cars. 
  Lithium Technology is here and the best electric cars will become only cheaper and better. Bloomberg estimates 2022 - 2026 when EVs will reach parity with ICE on capital cost alone. I will translate: depending on the country from 2022 electric cars will become cheaper to buy than comparable ICE ones. They will provide much better performance, safety and fraction of running cost to operate. This progress is inevitable and Tesla shows what is coming with Tesla Model S outselling ALL luxury sedan brands in the U.S. and Western Europe by a very wide margin. In the Q3 of this year, Tesla Model S sales were almost double of Mercedes S-Class and more than double of BMW 7!  
  And, finally, as Dr. Joe Romm is pointing out that governments start to wake up to the horrible cancer hazard air pollution on our streets from fuel-burning cars and voices for the ban of such cars are louder and louder.  We can already add Netherlands to his list of countries and I have put China there as well. Masters of the asymmetric warfare Chinese will definitely capitalize on the advance they have managed to gain with their New Energy Plan at the right time. China has the largest EVs market in the world, Warren Buffett-backed BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric carsChinese companies are the largest lithium chemicals producers for the lithium batteries already. Lithium Megafactories are rising with billions of dollars in investments and they are buying the best lithium projects to secure supply of this critical metal.
  If and when China will ban fuel-burning cars remains the speculation at this moment, but it will change the geopolitical landscape overnight making many Trillions of dollars in assets in the West worthless and some major companies literally shrinking in size within a year or two. We will have more Chinese names at the top of the World's largest companies for sure and size of the Chinese economy will jump reflecting the new growth based on the manufacturing base of the 21st centuryThis Energy rEVolution will be very fast and brutal to those unprepared. It is time to check your portfolios in order not to get caught in "The Death Spiral" - like Fitch is predicting for the oil companies. And whoever would like to start new trade wars should be thinking twice and long term in advance, like China is doing building secure lithium supply to power new Energy Plan and Electric rEVolution. With the diminishing role of Oil as the only source of Energy, will our world be able to have a peaceful transition to the new order? I will leave these worries to our brave politicians, you should think about your investments and on which side of the history you would like to be to make the difference. You can find my chronicles of this Energy rEVolution on this blog and below are some links for your own research including the Dr. Joe Romm article. Read more.



World Economic Forum:

India will sell only electric cars within the next 13 years


"Every car sold in India from 2030 will be electric, under new government plans that have delighted environmentalists and dismayed the oil industry.
It’s hoped that by ridding India’s roads of petrol and diesel cars in the years ahead, the country will be able to reduce the harmful levels of air pollution that contribute to a staggering 1.2 million deaths per year.
India’s booming economy has seen it become the world’s third-largest oil importer, shelling out $150 billion annually for the resource – so a switch to electric-powered vehicles would put a sizable dent in demand for oil. It’s been calculated that the revolutionary move would save the country $60 billion in energy costs by 2030, while also reducing running costs for millions of Indian car owners.



Image: Bloomberg

India’s Energy Minister Piyush Goyal says the government will financially support the initiative for the first two or three years, but the production of electric vehicles will be “driven by demand and not subsidy” after that.



Image: Shutterstock

Air pollution a big problem in India
More than a million people die in India every year as a result of breathing in toxic fumes, with an investigation by Greenpeace finding that the number of deaths caused by air pollution is only a fraction less than the number of smoking-related deaths.
The investigation also found that 3% of the country's gross domestic product was lost due to the levels of toxic smog.
In 2014, the World Health Organization determined that out of the 20 global cities with the most air pollution, 13 are in India. 
Efforts have been made by the country’s leaders to to improve air quality, with one example coming in January 2016 when New Delhi’s government mandatedthat men could only drive their cars on alternate days depending on whether their registration plate ended with an odd or even number (single women were permitted to drive every day). 
While such interventions have enjoyed modest success, switching to a fleet of purely electric cars would have a much greater environmental impact. 
Indeed, it’s been calculated that the gradual switch to electric vehicles across India would decrease carbon emissions by 37% by 2030
Oil firms facing uncertain future
As India’s ambitious electric vehicle plans begin to take shape, oil exporters will be frantically revising their calculations for oil demand in the region.
In its report into the impact of electric cars on oil demand, oil and gas giant BP forecast that the global fleet of petrol and diesel cars would almost double from about 900 million in 2015 to 1.7 billion by 2035.



Image: BP
Image: EVvolumes.com

Almost 90% of that growth was estimated to come from countries that are not members of the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), such as India and China.
China is also gearing up for a move away from gas-guzzling cars.
Last month, the Chinese confirmed they intend to push ahead with plans that will see alternative fuel vehicles account for at least one-fifth of the 35 million annual vehicle sales projected, by 2025
Oil bosses claim it’s too early to tell what the implications of a move away from petrol and diesel cars will be. However, Asia has long been the main driver of future oil demand and so developments in India and China will be watched extremely closely."