Friday, 29 September 2017

Lithium Race To Survive The Electrification: "Why China Can Ban Non-Electric Cars And Not California?"



Governor of California Jerry Brown is asking the right question. Is it possible that California can ban non-electric cars? It will be the huge endorsement for its own economy which is home not only to Tesla Motors, but Apple, Google and other tech giants who are looking at the next trillion dollar business to disrupt. Electric cars provide this opportunity, but can it be really done now in the U.S.? 

The answer will determine the speed of geopolitical shift in power balance when China will be leading the world into Post-Carbon Economy. The Old Empire which was built on the basis of a Century of Oil as a source of Energy Domination, military control of ICE Age supply chains and $20 Trillion debt accumulated in order to manage its decline is coming to the end. 

Energy rEVolution will be happening anyway, now it is time to decide who will join it in time to survive this disruption. DIEsel engines will only be the first and not the only victims of this transition now. China is building supply chains for Energy rEVOlution with military discipline. China already controls 75% of lithium supply materials for the batteries driving this Electrification of Transportation and Energy sectors.




For years we are following here Apple iCar, Google and Foxconn among many others working on the different parts of electric cars technology or the new electric cars. Now we are reaching the tipping point: convergence of technology, new players who bring competition and prices down; and anti-pollution movement by the most important countries for the automakers. DIEselGate was the last drop and auto lobby cannot just swipe it under the rug anymore, consumers are not buying "Clean DIEsel". Now automakers will have to change or the newcomers like Tesla or, maybe, even Dyson will start taking their market share from them very fast. 






Needless to say that lithium supply chains are not even close to the coming Tsunami of electric cars after Tesla Model S Earthquake. Countries like China and India are very serious to clean up their skies from deadly pollution and now we have lithium technology to make it possible: electric cars will take the world over much faster than a lot of people think.

Electrification of China and India will drive the next phase of the worldwide growth in EV fleet. India has announced that all new cars on sale will be electric by 2030 and they are taking it seriously making the first tender for 10,000 EVs to be supplied for the government ministries and agencies now. Transfer of the best technology for Lithium Batteries and Electric Cars will be next. China is already The Centre of The Lithium Universe and exercises its state-level New Energy Plan step by step with the military discipline, starting with securing a Lithium Supply Chain.

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Back Into The Future - Lithium Will Power Us For The Next 50 Years And Then Robots.



Lithium Race: Which Will Be The First Country To Ban Fuel-Burning Cars: Norway, Netherlands, Germany, India or China?






  Dr. Joe Romm provides us with more information on the recent decision of German Bundesrat to ban fuel-burning cars. This tipping point for electric cars to become the fast-growing mass market is the result of the technological advance called "The Learning Curve" when doubling of production brings on average 26% in cost reduction. It is true for the price of Solar PV, it is even faster for the chip makers and for Lithium Batteries Bloomberg reports about 14-19% cost reduction every year.
  Now we are in the fast lane approaching this transition with first electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 miles coming to the market: GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3. BMW i3 with the new larger battery, Renault Zoe with 400 km range and Nissan Leaf with upgraded battery are driving the sales in Europe and China stands on its own with 25 companies making 51 models of electric cars. 
  Lithium Technology is here and the best electric cars will become only cheaper and better. Bloomberg estimates 2022 - 2026 when EVs will reach parity with ICE on capital cost alone. I will translate: depending on the country from 2022 electric cars will become cheaper to buy than comparable ICE ones. They will provide much better performance, safety and fraction of running cost to operate. This progress is inevitable and Tesla shows what is coming with Tesla Model S outselling ALL luxury sedan brands in the U.S. and Western Europe by a very wide margin. In the Q3 of this year, Tesla Model S sales were almost double of Mercedes S-Class and more than double of BMW 7!  
  And, finally, as Dr. Joe Romm is pointing out that governments start to wake up to the horrible cancer hazard air pollution on our streets from fuel-burning cars and voices for the ban of such cars are louder and louder.  We can already add Netherlands to his list of countries and I have put China there as well. Masters of the asymmetric warfare Chinese will definitely capitalize on the advance they have managed to gain with their New Energy Plan at the right time. China has the largest EVs market in the world, Warren Buffett-backed BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric carsChinese companies are the largest lithium chemicals producers for the lithium batteries already. Lithium Megafactories are rising with billions of dollars in investments and they are buying the best lithium projects to secure supply of this critical metal.
  If and when China will ban fuel-burning cars remains the speculation at this moment, but it will change the geopolitical landscape overnight making many Trillions of dollars in assets in the West worthless and some major companies literally shrinking in size within a year or two. We will have more Chinese names at the top of the World's largest companies for sure and size of the Chinese economy will jump reflecting the new growth based on the manufacturing base of the 21st centuryThis Energy rEVolution will be very fast and brutal to those unprepared. It is time to check your portfolios in order not to get caught in "The Death Spiral" - like Fitch is predicting for the oil companies. And whoever would like to start new trade wars should be thinking twice and long-term in advance, like China is doing building secure lithium supply to power new Energy Plan and Electric rEVolution. With the diminishing role of Oil as the only source of Energy, will our world be able to have a peaceful transition to the new order? I will leave these worries to our brave politicians, you should think about your investments and on which side of the history you would like to be to make the difference. You can find my chronicles of this Energy rEVolution on this blog and below are some links for your own research including the Dr. Joe Romm article. Read more."





The New York Times:

California Today: Should California Ban Non-Electric Cars?