Saturday, 22 October 2016

Lithium Race: Which Will Be The First Country To Ban Fuel-Burning Cars: Norway, Netherlands, Germany, India or China?




  Dr. Joe Romm provides us with more information on the recent decision of German Bundesrat to ban fuel-burning cars. This tipping point for electric cars to become the fast growing mass market is the result of the technological advance called "The Learning Curve" when doubling of production brings on average 26% in cost reduction. It is true for the price of Solar PV, it is even faster for the chip makers and for Lithium Batteries Bloomberg reports about 14-19% cost reduction every year.
  Now we are in the fast lane approaching this transition with first electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 miles coming to the market: GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3. BMW i3 with the new larger battery, Renault Zoe with 400 km range and Nissan Leaf with upgraded battery are driving the sales in Europe and China stands on its own with 25 companies making 51 models of electric cars. 
  Lithium Technology is here and the best electric cars will become only cheaper and better. Bloomberg estimates 2022 - 2026 when EVs will reach parity with ICE on capital cost alone. I will translate: depending on the country from 2022 electric cars will become cheaper to buy than comparable ICE ones. They will provide much better performance, safety and fraction of running cost to operate. This progress is inevitable and Tesla shows what is coming with Tesla Model S outselling ALL luxury sedan brands in the U.S. and Western Europe by a very wide margin. In the Q3 of this year, Tesla Model S sales were almost double of Mercedes S-Class and more than double of BMW 7!  
  And, finally, as Dr. Joe Romm is pointing out that governments start to wake up to the horrible cancer hazard air pollution on our streets from fuel-burning cars and voices for the ban of such cars are louder and louder.  We can already add Netherlands to his list of countries and I have put China there as well. Masters of the asymmetric warfare Chinese will definitely capitalize on the advance they have managed to gain with their New Energy Plan at the right time. China has the largest EVs market in the world, Warren Buffett-backed BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric cars, Chinese companies are the largest lithium chemicals producers for the lithium batteries already. Lithium Megafactories are rising with billions of dollars in investments and they are buying the best lithium projects to secure supply of this critical metal.
  If and when China will ban fuel-burning cars remains the speculation at this moment, but it will change the geopolitical landscape overnight making many Trillions of dollars in assets in the West worthless and some major companies literally shrinking in size within a year or two. We will have more Chinese names at the top of the World's largest companies for sure and size of the Chinese economy will jump reflecting the new growth based on the manufacturing base of the 21st century. This Energy rEVolution will be very fast and brutal to those unprepared. It is time to check your portfolios in order not to get caught in "The Death Spiral" - like Fitch is predicting for the oil companies. And whoever would like to start new trade wars should be thinking twice and long term in advance, like China is doing building secure lithium supply to power new Energy Plan and Electric rEVolution. With the diminishing role of Oil as the only source of Energy, will our world be able to have a peaceful transition to the new order? I will leave these worries to our brave politicians, you should think about your investments and on which side of the history you would like to be to make the difference. You can find my chronicles of this Energy rEVolution on this blog and below are some links for your own research including the Dr. Joe Romm article.


Lithium Market Small But Complex. Canadian Junior And Chinese Partner Taking Long View.







This brings the total amount budgeted for exploration to CAD$17 million across the Company’s projects in CanadaArgentina and Ireland, making International Lithium Corp. one of the most active exploration companies in the lithium sector.  This speaks volumes for the quality as well as the potential of the Company’s projects,” states Kirill Klip, President, International Lithium Corp.”






International Lithium At Wentworth 2016 Presentation.








Lithium 2.0: "New Lithium Top 5" Consolidation And Security Of Supply: FT "China's Tianqi Moves On Chile's SQM."

  


  FT reports that further round of competition for the security of lithium supply is driving the new wave of consolidation among our "New Lithium Top 5". With all political troubles in Chile Argentina is rising to the top lithium destination in the world now. Chinese Tianqi and Ganfeng were competing for the stake in SQM. Now we can see that Tianqi will pay 51% premium to get 2.6% for more than $200 million dollars in SQM. This move opens the doors to acquire more than 20% stake in SQM. I will be following on more details of this deal.

"Now you can better understand why the security for lithium supply becomes crucial for the industry leaders. Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi have made it to the "New Lithium Top 5" this year and even pushed FMC down in the 5th place, according to Joe Lowry. Tianqi controls with Albemarle Talison  Lithium - a source of lithium raw material from hard rock mining in Australia. Now with Tianqi front running for the 23% stake at SQM - a source of lithium raw material from brine in Chile, we will have a new round of competition for the security of lithium supply. Reflecting on its political problems in Chile SQM moves to Argentina in J/V with Lithium Americas and Albemarle has just announced plans for the lithium exploration in Argentina. 
  International Lithium is building the vertically integrated lithium business with $4.5 Billion market cap giant from China Ganfeng Lithium, which is financing J/V operations in Argentina and Ireland. Below you can find more links on the Lithium Battery and raw materials space to make your own conclusions."


Security Of Lithium Supply: Battery Maker Helping Power China Electric Car Boom Plans IPO.

 


  "While we are all (apart from short sellers) enjoying the news coming out from Tesla about its Gigafactory progress the real Lithium Race and cut-throat competition are happening in China. Warren Buffett's BYD is going after Panasonic with its aggressive plans for lithium battery Megafactories all over the world and now Bloomberg reports that CATL is going after BYD. 
  This competition will bring the prices for lithium batteries down to the Holy Grail for electric cars of $100 per KWh. Then battery for Tesla Model 3 or GM Bolt will be costing just $6k and we can start seriously talking about all cars becoming electric. We will have now the entry into the mass market for EVs with the first two electric cars with over 200 miles range and priced under 40k: GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3. Next step we can talk about my magic formula for all cars to become electric 20/200: when $20k buys you BMW 2 series type electric car with 200 miles range.
  Even without this coming lower prices for the electric cars based on mass volume production of lithium batteries we are pushing 1,000,000 sales of EVs this year alone already! Bloomberg provides the new insight into Lithium Battery market and I will have to update a lot of numbers in my Lithium 2.0 Launch, starting with Tesla which now will produce at Gigafactory 1 50 GWh of lithium batteries already in 2018 and 150 GWh by 2022!
  Now you can better understand why the security for lithium supply becomes crucial for the industry leaders. Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi have made it to the "New Lithium Top 5" this year and even pushed FMC down in the 5th place, according to Joe Lowry. Tianqi controls with Albemarle Talison  Lithium - a source of lithium raw material from hard rock mining in Australia. Now with Tianqi front running for the 23% stake at SQM - a source of lithium raw material from brine in Chile, we will have a new round of competition for the security of lithium supply. Reflecting on its political problems in Chile SQM moves to Argentina in J/V with Lithium Americas and Albemarle has just announced plans for the lithium exploration in Argentina. 
  International Lithium is building the vertically integrated lithium business with $4.5 Billion market cap giant from China Ganfeng Lithium, which is financing J/V operations in Argentina and Ireland. Below you can find more links on the Lithium Battery and raw materials space to make your own conclusions. Read more."








"The New Lithium Top 5": EV Race At Ludicrous Speed - 200 Companies Are Developing 4,000 Models Of Electric Cars In China.






  "People are still choking up when I casually drop my line that there are 25 companies which are making 51 models of electric cars in China right now. Bloomberg is writing about another EV maker from Japan nobody-knows-about, but the real Lithium Bomb is coming with the line that around 200 companies are developing estimated 4,000 models of electric cars in China now!
  Should we all check together the lithium demand again? You can find the links below with more information about Tesla Gigafactory 1 and another dozen of Lithium Megafactories  all over the world. I was very cautiously pointing out to the 17 start-ups in China started in 2015 alone and trying to make lithium batteries before.  Bloomberg has brought us all on another page of understanding of this state-level crafted and carefully planned military operation called New Energy in China. Should we start talking about rumored 500 Lithium Batteries factories in China rising up right now?
   In our Lithium Universe, according to Robert Baylis,  Albemarle is number 1 getting 25% after its latest deal in China with Jiangli. SQM is struggling to hold the 2nd place with 19%, with all its political problems.  FMC was left behind by Tianqi now with 16% claiming place number 3 and announcing the End of "Old Big 3". Ganfeng Lithium is challenging FMC as well and they both are sharing places number 4 and 5 in the "New Lithium Top 5". International lithium is building the vertically integrated lithium business with $4.5 billion giant from China. Ganfeng Lithium is a strategic partner of ILC and financing our J/V projects in Argentina and Ireland.
  Joe Lowry has pointed out that this recent move by Albemarle in China is expanding its margin, but not increasing the amount of LCE produced. I am following the comments on this chart below from Robert Baylis as well. Read more."





Robert Baylis.



Update September 5th, 2016:

Thank you, Joe, for your comments!




Copyright Global Lithium LLC, used with permission.





Think Progress:

Which will be the first country to ban fuel-burning cars: Norway, Germany, India?



The electric vehicle revolution is at a tipping point.






A German e-car charges at a public station in Berlin. CREDIT: AP/Michael Sohn