Saturday, 12 November 2016

The Centre Of Lithium Universe: China Is Pushing For ZEV Mandate: 8% Of New Cars To Be Electric By 2018, 12% By 2020.

Electrek.

"Electrek reports that China is pushing for the very aggressive ZEV mandate: "8% Of New Cars To Be Electric By 2018, 12% By 2020." I will translate: this year we are getting just over 1% of new cars sales in China. By 2018 they are talking about a factor of 8 and by 2020 about the 12 times that amount! Digest."
  


 "If and when China will ban fuel-burning cars remains the speculation at this moment, but it will change the geopolitical landscape overnight making many Trillions of dollars in assets in the West worthless and some major companies literally shrinking in size within a year or two. We will have more Chinese names at the top of the World's largest companies for sure and size of the Chinese economy will jump reflecting the new growth based on the manufacturing base of the 21st centuryThis Energy rEVolution will be very fast and brutal to those unprepared. It is time to check your portfolios in order not to get caught in "The Death Spiral" - like Fitch is predicting for the oil companies. And whoever would like to start new trade wars should be thinking twice and long term in advance, like China is doing building secure lithium supply to power new Energy Plan and Electric rEVolution. With the diminishing role of Oil as the only source of Energy, will our world be able to have a peaceful transition to the new order? Read more."




  Today we can discuss again why this Energy rEVolution is unstoppable. Let's stop moaning and procrastinating and get back to business to make it happen. "The Learning Curve" is making Electric Cars and Solar the better business choices. Electric cars are delivering better performance, have a fraction of the running cost than ICE  and will be cheaper as well very soon. GM Bolt is going live and you can configure your very own electric car which is priced below $40k and goes for 200 miles "Made in America". Well ... almost ... apart from the lithium batteries ...
  This is the Energy rEVolution in action. Tesla Model 3 will take us even further in the fast lane to the mass market for electric cars. Solar power generation is beating record after record by cutting costs of installations. I do not think that Donald Trump will make the costly geopolitical mistake and will make China The Great instead of trying at least to run The U.S. as a business enterprise in the best sense of this term. Vote in Florida against anti-Solar law demonstrates that once you turned The Pyramid upside down you can't just stop it. We have the culmination of Information Revolution based on the Internet. We are moving now into The Energy rEVolution based on Distributed Energy Generation with Solar and Wind; and storage of Energy. The World Is Just Before The Internet. Centralized Energy Control No More. The first countries implementing it seriously will be driving the rest of 21st century to prosperity for their people. 
  We are talking about Power here, it is used to be Oil for more than 100 years, but not anymore - now the have The Miracle. We can produce renewable energy and store it with lithium batteries very efficiently. Now we can use the most efficient form of energy known to us - electricity when we need it. We do not have to burn things. It is not my presentation for kids, it is what China is doing with its state level and military style execution of The New Energy Plan. It is all about Power and Business, Oil is on its way out and if you try to stop it, China will become number one economic power even faster. Who does need all your military to bring "Democracy" and protect Oil supply chain if nobody needs 80% of oil anymore?
  It will be very unfortunate if somebody will put a barbed wire all around the U.S. and will make Solar and Electric Cars illegal in the U.S. - in all other cases it is unstoppable and becomes the question of the best economic choice. You do not have to believe in a climate change to drive Electric Car with a performance of Porsche at the price of Toyota. No oil change, no 250 moving parts and just 10% cost for electricity compare to the gas. 
  In this case, maybe Elon Musk will come to the UK and will make his beautiful electric cars for everybody else in the world? It looks like The Great Germans still need a hand: they are already complaining that China with its new mandates for Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) will put them out of business in China! We are already here, building the secure lithium supply even in Ireland. And now different countries in Europe are competing to become the place for the Tesla Gigafactory 2 which will be producing not only lithium batteries but electric cars as well, according to Elon Musk.
  But all jokes aside, I do not like to be the first with a news flash, that it is not only about America anymore. China is the Center Of Lithium Universe, links below will provide you with more information why it is really happening so fast. China is already the largest market for electric cars, BYD backed by Warren Buffet is the largest EV manufacturer in the world and Chinese companies are producing the largest amount of lithium chemicals for the batteries. There are 25 companies which are making 51 models of electric cars in China now. This year we will see over 500,000 EVs sold in China. It took GM 7 years to sell 100,000 Chevy Volts from 2009. BYD will sell 100,000 EVs this year alone!
  Now Electrek reports that China is pushing for the very aggressive ZEV mandate: "8% Of New Cars To Be Electric By 2018, 12% By 2020." I will translate: this year we are getting just over 1% of new cars sales in China. By 2018 they are talking about a factor of 8 and by 2020 about the 12 times that amount! Digest. Maybe the Orange is the new Black, but economics has still the same language, money talks. And Green is the color of money these days. BYD estimates its profit up 84% this year after triple digits growth before!











International Lithium and Ganfeng: Major Catalyst For Electric rEVolution And Security Of Lithium Supply.

  



  We have discussed before the fast changing geopolitical landscape in the world and why New Energy Plan in China can change the balance in our world's economic system just in a few very short years. For more than 100 years oil was our only major source of energy powering the economic growth. Oil means power and power means oil - this sentence can determine the politics of all 20th century. But not anymore. We are just at the tipping point of the major tectonic shift from the centralized energy systems to the distributed electricity  generation and its consumption when we want it. Electricity is the most efficient form of energy known to us. Now, thanks to "The Learning Curve", we can produce it very cheap with solar and wind and we can store it very efficiently using lithium batteries. Cheap lithium batteries change everything here. We are in the catalyst stage of moving from 2 to 7000. 2 is the number of batteries in your farther's first remote control, 7000 is the number of lithium batteries in Tesla Model S. 
  Tesla is making the headlines demonstrating the potential of lithium technology. Elon Musk has proved that electric cars are just better. Here comes the China's New Energy Plan in the picture as the major driving force for The Switch with its state-level military style planning and execution - you can find more details about it in my previous posts. 
  Two major Chinese companies Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi are part of this state-level plan to build the Electric rEvolution from top to bottom, including the secure supply chain for the critical metal Lithium which is at the very heart of this technology. This year they have broken "The Old Lithium Big 3" and now we have "The New Lithium Top 5". Albemarle is in the first place and SQM is holding now to the second. Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi have pushed FMC into the 5th place and are chasing each other between 3rd and 4th. Ganfeng Lithium is a $4.5 Billion MC company and strategic partner of International Lithium. We were very fortunate after two years of due diligence to strike the major deal with Ganfeng for International Lithium in 2011. This business demands a long term planning and stamina just to stay with the game. This year, after 7 years of building our business, we are celebrating with Ganfeng the 5th anniversary International Lithium's IPO. Read more."



Mr. Li Chairman of Ganfeng Lithium and Mr. Klip President of International Lithium Corp.



Lithium Race: Which Will Be The First Country To Ban Fuel-Burning Cars: Norway, Netherlands, Germany, India or China?






  "Dr. Joe Romm provides us with more information on the recent decision of German Bundesrat to ban fuel-burning cars. This tipping point for electric cars to become the fast growing mass market is the result of the technological advance called "The Learning Curve" when doubling of production brings on average 26% in cost reduction. It is true for the price of Solar PV, it is even faster for the chip makers and for Lithium Batteries Bloomberg reports about 14-19% cost reduction every year.
  Now we are in the fast lane approaching this transition with first electric cars priced below $40k and with a range of over 200 miles coming to the market: GM Bolt and Tesla Model 3. BMW i3 with the new larger battery, Renault Zoe with 400 km range and Nissan Leaf with upgraded battery are driving the sales in Europe and China stands on its own with 25 companies making 51 models of electric cars. 
  Lithium Technology is here and the best electric cars will become only cheaper and better. Bloomberg estimates 2022 - 2026 when EVs will reach parity with ICE on capital cost alone. I will translate: depending on the country from 2022 electric cars will become cheaper to buy than comparable ICE ones. They will provide much better performance, safety and fraction of running cost to operate. This progress is inevitable and Tesla shows what is coming with Tesla Model S outselling ALL luxury sedan brands in the U.S. and Western Europe by a very wide margin. In the Q3 of this year, Tesla Model S sales were almost double of Mercedes S-Class and more than double of BMW 7!  
  And, finally, as Dr. Joe Romm is pointing out that governments start to wake up to the horrible cancer hazard air pollution on our streets from fuel-burning cars and voices for the ban of such cars are louder and louder.  We can already add Netherlands to his list of countries and I have put China there as well. Masters of the asymmetric warfare Chinese will definitely capitalize on the advance they have managed to gain with their New Energy Plan at the right time. China has the largest EVs market in the world, Warren Buffett-backed BYD is the largest manufacturer of electric carsChinese companies are the largest lithium chemicals producers for the lithium batteries already. Lithium Megafactories are rising with billions of dollars in investments and they are buying the best lithium projects to secure supply of this critical metal.
  If and when China will ban fuel-burning cars remains the speculation at this moment, but it will change the geopolitical landscape overnight making many Trillions of dollars in assets in the West worthless and some major companies literally shrinking in size within a year or two. We will have more Chinese names at the top of the World's largest companies for sure and size of the Chinese economy will jump reflecting the new growth based on the manufacturing base of the 21st centuryThis Energy rEVolution will be very fast and brutal to those unprepared. It is time to check your portfolios in order not to get caught in "The Death Spiral" - like Fitch is predicting for the oil companies. And whoever would like to start new trade wars should be thinking twice and long term in advance, like China is doing building secure lithium supply to power new Energy Plan and Electric rEVolution. With the diminishing role of Oil as the only source of Energy, will our world be able to have a peaceful transition to the new order? I will leave these worries to our brave politicians, you should think about your investments and on which side of the history you would like to be to make the difference. You can find my chronicles of this Energy rEVolution on this blog and below are some links for your own research including the Dr. Joe Romm article. Read more."






Electrek:


"As we often report, several countries are pushing some impressive goals to transition their car fleet to electric. Now China is feeling the pressure to act because of its growing air pollution problem and the country looks likely to turn to a ZEV mandate to achieve its own goals for the transition to electric transport.

The latest draft of the proposed legislation is pushing for a relatively aggressive mandate that is already causing some panic amongst automakers heavily investing in the country now that it has become the biggest car market in the world.

These new proposals are always useful to show the true face of carmakers. Most of them are claiming unprecedented commitments to electric vehicles, but when new legislations are put forward to encourage those supposed commitments, they lobby against them.

We have witnessed it recently with strong lobbying against a possible strengthening of California’s ZEV mandate.

The latest example comes from China where a new proposed ZEV mandate being considered by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology would see zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) represent 8% of new car sales as soon as 2018 and quickly ramp up to 12% by 2020. China has about 20 million new car sales per year.

In comparison, Quebec is the latest market to adopt a ZEV mandate. The new mandated ZEV market shares, which are modelled after California’s mandate, are much slower to ramp: 3.4% in 2018, 6.9% in 2020 and 15.5% in 2025.

German magazine Suddeutche Zeitung is reporting that German automakers are worried about the proposed rule and they are now counting on Economy Minister Gabriel’s visit to Beijing in order to clarify the situation. German automakers are relatively big producers of plug-in hybrids, but they manufacture very few all-electric vehicles.

Under the latest draft of the proposed mandate in China, plug-in hybrids would get 2 credits while all-electric vehicles will get 4 credits.  As the magazine reports, German automakers will be looking to know the threshold of all-electric range necessary to get the most credits possible. Otherwise, some of them could find it difficult to ramp up production in time.

A similar situation arose in Hong Kong earlier this year when German officials plead with Hong Kong regulators to increase plug-in hybrid incentives in order for German automakers to compete with Tesla, which currently has about 80% market share of Hong Kong’s electric vehicle market.

Hong Kong and mainland China are increasingly becoming important battlegrounds for electric automakers and we will be following closely a possible ZEV mandate, which could make the market even more interesting."